In the final segment of the day at the Dealbook conference, Paul Krugman spoke about the Fiscal Cliff, China, the deficit, and so forth.
During the Q&A, I asked him about an observation that I (and my colleague Jay Yarow) had noticed during the conference.
Basically: All of the Wall Street CEOs get asked about inequality, while none of the Silicon Valley billionaires get asked about it.
Paul Krugman, however, has been writing a lot about tech and robots lately, and sees some concerning effects on the U.S. worker from the use of technology.
His complete answer, which is a little off due to our transcribing:
"We still think about the tech guys as doing these wonderful things for us. And sometimes they are. Maybe we need to reconsider a little bit. Are we so totally happy with what technology is doing? I love watching concerts on my iPad ... there's a pretty good case that technology is ambivalent in its effect on workers, and possibly even harmful. That doesn't mean to stop it ... but maybe stop worshiping the tech executives."
He specifically called out how bonkers everyone went when Steve Jobs died.
"The number of jobs that Apple actually creates in America is ludicrous. That's not to say that technology isn't great, but it's not a panacea."
Some other key ideas:
- He thinks there's a greater than 50/50 chance we go over the Fiscal Cliff.
- He thinks China is a great success story that could kills us all due to climate change.
- The competition for resources is the main reason to worry about Chinese growth ... not competition or cheap goods.
- The RMB is not that much undervalued these days.
- Most talk about the skills gap in education is claptrap.
Below are our full notes.
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Earlier notes
Paul Krugman is the last person on stage at the Dealbook conference.
We're live-blogging.
Our notes are below:
-- China. Hard to talk about it because of quality of data, but there's no reason to think it's found some special formula. Very ordinary growth for a country of its GDP-per-capita. Nothing special. Just huge.
-- Is China's growth good for the US? To some extent we are hurt by Chinese growth ... because there are scarce natural resources.
-- Because of climate change ... "Chinese growth is a wonderful human success story that could kill us all ..."
-- RMB still undervalued, but not as dramatic as it was. Not as big of a problem as it was two years ago.
-- Now talking Cliff ...
-- "Better than even odds" that we go over the cliff. Not much time. Boehner still pushing for permanent extension of Bush tax cuts, and no give from Republicans on the Debt Ceiling.
-- "I assumed that everyone was reading Nate Silver. (Republicans weren't). They were completely floored."
-- Also on cliff, Republicans want huge spending cuts, but want Obama to propose the details. There's a "wonk gap." GOP doesn't have smart policy people on its side.
-- Krugman: My eventual solution to the deficit problem: "Death panels and a consumption tax." (It's a joke, but he does say the government needs to say more).
-- It shouldn't be hard to fix the deficit, since our medical system is so inefficient it won't take much to fix.
-- "In response to a question that I asked him about tech executives never being asked about inequality." We still think about the tech guys as doing these wonderful things for us. And sometimes they are. Maybe we need to reconsider a little bit. Are we so totally happy with what technology is doing? I love watching concerts on my iPad ... there's a pretty good case that technology is ambivalent in its effect on workers, and possibly even harmful. That doesn't mean to stop it ... but maybe stop worshiping the tech executives."
"The number of jobs that Apple actually creates in America is ludicrous. That's not to say that technology isn't great, but it's not a panacea."
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