Microsoft's Windows sales dropped 11% on a year over year basis during the holiday season in the U.S., according to new data from NPD.
This is bad news for Microsoft's Windows franchise, but it's not unexpected.
NPD's lead analyst Stephen Baker tells us, "Windows notebook sales were going down all year. This isn't new. This isn't an acceleration. This is in line with what's going on. It's not any worse, or any better."
The 11% drop "doesn't have anything to do with Windows 8," says Baker. Instead, it's all about the market Microsoft is competing in.
"Microsoft doesn't have a credible response" to expensive tablets like the iPad, or cheap tablets like the Kindle Fire, Google Nexus, or iPad Mini, and that's what's hurting Windows consumer sales.
This is what's really troublesome for Microsoft about these stats. This isn't some grand pronouncement about Windows 8 being a failure. This is a grand pronouncement about a fundamental shift in personal computing behavior. "I consider that scary," for Microsoft, says Baker.
Apple's laptop sales were down 6% on a year over year basis, according to NPD's data. The difference between the two is that Apple is going to sell a lot of iPads to make up for the drop.
We asked Baker if he was surprised that Windows 8 didn't provide a bump. After all, wouldn't people hold off on buying notebooks running Windows 7 to get the latest, greatest operating system?
"Never happens. That's a myth, a big fat stupid myth," said Baker. Essentially, if people need a laptop, they're going to buy it. No one who was going back to school and needed a computer would hold off an wait for a computer. It's a tool and they need it.
"They released an operating system [Windows 8] that's pretty good when you have touch screens, but there wasn't enough effort to drive down pricing on touch screens," says Baker.
All of Microsoft's least expensive notebooks are missing touch screen elements which are what make Windows 8 great, and make it competitive with tablets. At the under $500 price point, consumers are just going to pick iPads or Kindles or Android-tablets.
We've reached out to Microsoft for a comment, but it declined to comment.
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