Apple's next iPhone will probably look exactly like its current iPhone, says Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty after reading over Apple's quarterly SEC filing.
Here's the key nugget in her report on the state of Apple's gross margins:
Lower planned purchases of production equipment sets up for higher iPhone 5S margin. The 10-Q discloses $904M of commitments for equipment purchases compare to $4.5B just two quarters ago when Apple invested in new in-cell touch displays for the iPhone 5. The decrease is likely due to iPhone 5S not requiring significant hardware changes, therefore iPhone GM could be much higher in C2H13.
As you can see, she's interpreting a lack of investment as a sign that the hardware won't get a big change. She also believes Apple's margin can bounce back a little with a new iPhone.
This wouldn't be a shock. Apple's pattern since the first iPhone is to change the hardware design every other year. Since Apple updated the iPhone last October, we wouldn't expect a physical change this year.
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