Almost one year ago today, we laid out the nightmare scenario for Microsoft that could lead to its business collapsing.
After laying it all out, we concluded, "Fortunately for Microsoft, none of this is going to happen."
We were wrong.
A lot changed in the last year.
Microsoft's nightmare scenario is actually starting to take hold. We're revisiting our slideshow from last year to see how things have played out.
Each of the slides that follows has one piece of the nightmare scenario for Microsoft. In the body of the slide, we explain where Microsoft stands in comparison to that hypothetical situation.
1. The iPad eats the consumer PC market.
This is happening right now. In the third quarter of 2012, PC sales were down 8 percent on a year-over-year basis worldwide. In the U.S., sales were down 14 percent. A big chunk of the decline can be attributed to the rise of the iPad. Apple sold 14 million iPads last quarter, which is more than the top PC maker, Lenovo, which shipped 13.7 million PCs. Throw in Apple's 4.9 million Macs, and it's the top computer maker by a mile.
As the personal computer market goes ...
2. Employees gradually switch away from using Windows PCs for work.
This trend has not played out that dramatically in 2012. However, British bank Barclays bought 8,500 iPads at employees' insistence this year.
And a recent survey showed that the iPhone has overtaken RIM as the smartphone of choice for enterprises. As more people get comfortable with Apple's mobile products at work, Microsoft will have to worry about them converting their Windows-based computers to Macs at work, too.
Microsoft has a plan to combat this but ...
3. Windows 8 fails to stop the iPad.
Gulp. It's still early, but every most data points say Windows 8 is not going to make a dent in the iPad.
- NPD says Windows tablet sales were "nonexistent" between 10/21 and 11/17.
- It also says Windows sales were down 21 percent over that period on a year-over-year basis.
- Piper analyst Gene Munster was in a Microsoft store for two hours on Black Friday and saw zero Surface sales.
- Microsoft reportedly cut its Surface order in half.
- Ballmer said Surface sales were "modest."
Meanwhile, we can't think of any analyst who has cut his or her iPad estimate for the quarter based on Surface sales.
In Microsoft's defense, it says it sold 40 million licenses, which it says is out pacing Windows 7. There's a chance analysts are wrong.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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